The Las Vegas Aces are set to face the Toronto Tempo today, July 20, 2026, in an NBA matchup that presents an intriguing betting opportunity. The Aces, currently 17-7 and third in the Western Conference, are formidable on the road with a 10-2 record. The Toronto Tempo, sitting at 10-15 and fifth in the Eastern Conference, have struggled recently, losing six of their last seven games. This game, tipping off at 8:00 PM ET at Coca-Cola Coliseum in Toronto, offers a compelling spread bet that our AI-powered analytics platform, ChalkPicks, has identified as a strong value play. ## Why We Like This Pick * **Undervaluation on DraftKings:** Our AI analysis indicates that the Las Vegas Aces +11.5 spread is undervalued on DraftKings. While both DraftKings and FanDuel are major players in sports betting, their odds can differ, creating opportunities for savvy bettors. DraftKings sometimes has slower updates or different pricing models that can lead to brief windows of positive expected value (+EV bet) compared to other sportsbooks. * **Aces' Strong Road Performance:** The Las Vegas Aces boast an impressive 10-2 record on the road this season, demonstrating their ability to perform consistently away from home. This strong road form is a significant factor in our NBA picks today, suggesting they can cover the spread even against a struggling home team. * **Tempo's Recent Struggles and Injury Woes:** The Toronto Tempo have been in a slump, losing six of their last seven games, including a recent 111-92 defeat at home to the Atlanta Dream. Compounding their difficulties, the Tempo are dealing with several key injuries, which will be detailed further below. ## Key Factors **Injuries:** The Toronto Tempo are significantly impacted by injuries. Forward Nyara Sabally suffered a rib injury in their last game and has been ruled out for today's contest. Additionally, Kiki Rice (Grade 3 left ankle sprain) and Brittany Sykes (plantar fasciitis) remain sidelined, with Rice not expected back before the All-Star break and Sykes having missed her last 10 games. Temi Fagbenle was recently in concussion protocol but has fully participated in practice. These absences severely weaken the Tempo's rotation. For the Las Vegas Aces, rookie forward Janiah Barker is out for the remainder of the season due to a leg injury. Dana Evans is sidelined indefinitely with a left leg injury. Kierstan Bell is also out with a leg injury. Despite these injuries, the Aces have maintained a strong record, indicating their depth and ability to overcome player absences. **Form:** The Aces enter this game with a 17-7 overall record, having won three of their last five games. While they recently experienced a significant 109-75 loss to Indiana, they also secured a commanding 106-58 win over Phoenix and an 88-80 road victory against Portland. Their offensive efficiency is notable, averaging 89.9 points per game on 48% shooting from the field. The Tempo, conversely, have a 10-15 record and have lost by an average margin of 18.0 points in their last two home losses. They average 72 points per game and have struggled with turnovers and defensive consistency. **Line Movement:** The betting odds for this matchup show the Las Vegas Aces as 10.5-point favorites at some sportsbooks, with the total set around 182.5 points. Our pick of Las Vegas Aces +11.5 at -108 odds suggests a favorable line available on DraftKings, indicating a potential +EV bet due to discrepancies in betting odds across platforms. ## Betting Strategy For this NBA pick, we recommend utilizing the Kelly Criterion to determine your unit size. The Kelly Criterion is a money management formula that calculates the optimal amount to wager when you have an edge, maximizing long-term profits while minimizing the risk of ruin. Given our confidence score of 78% and an edge score of 4.20, this is a strong candidate for a calculated wager. To apply the Kelly Criterion, you'll need to input your estimated win probability (78% or 0.78), the decimal odds (1.926 for -108), and your bankroll. The formula is `f = (bp - q) / b`, where `f` is the fraction of your bankroll to bet, `b` is the decimal odds minus 1, `p` is your win probability, and `q` is 1-p. It's generally advised to use a fractional Kelly (e.g., half or quarter Kelly) to mitigate variance, especially in sports betting where probabilities are estimates. For a 78% win probability at -108 odds, a full Kelly stake would be substantial, so a fractional approach is prudent. ## Recommendation Our recommendation for today's NBA picks is the **Las Vegas Aces +11.5** at odds of -108. With a high confidence score of 78% and an edge score of 4.20, our AI analysis points to significant undervaluation on DraftKings. The Aces' strong road performance and the Tempo's extensive injury list and recent poor form further solidify this as a compelling +EV bet.